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HERE AND THERE PDF Print E-mail
Tuesday, 07 September 2010 16:48

Government promises no more red tape. Business Secretary, Vince Cable, announced what he calls a ‘comprehensive package of measures’ on regulation. I do not know an owner-manager who opposes a reduction. But we have heard all this over and over again. The big question is whether the Government can cure Whitehall’s love of making new rules? The noisy headline is a policy of one-in, one-out. Maybe this means that new regulations cannot be introduced without the removal of equivalent cost? This ought to bring an end to the explosion of new rules we have seen in recent years. The real challenge will be the culture in Westminster. There will be new curbs on policy-makers, including new over-arching Principles of Regulation that ministers will have to consider when drafting new laws. An Independent Regulatory Policy Committee will examine each proposal, while the Better Regulation Executive will work across departments to install new rules and get rid of unnecessary ones. All this is playing to the crowd, especially as far as smaller firms are concerned. Politicians constantly promise to cut red tape, but little changes. Part of the problem is that it is more difficult to get rid of regulations than most people believe. For example, is the Government to repeal employment legislation, most of which the UK is obligated to follow by decisions of the European Union. Many manufacturers welcome a common standard for products, providing it is the one they use now.

Certain characteristics tend to take an unhealthy turn under pressure.

  • enthusiastic to volatile. Violently afflicted by disappointment
  • shrewd to cynical. Lacking trust and doubting others
  • careful to over-cautious. Too concerned with making a mistake
  • independent to detached. Aloof, lacking interest in others
  • focused to intolerant. Refusing to be hurried, ignoring requests and getting irritable
  • confident to arrogant. Unwilling to admit mistakes or listen to advice
  • charming to manipulative. Taking unnecessary risks just for the excitement
  • vivacious to dramatising. Waiting to be noticed
  • imaginative to eccentric. Acting and thinking in unusual ways
  • diligent to perfectionist. Over-critical of everyone else
  • dutiful to dependent. Incapable of decisive action.

The Association of Search and Selection Consultants (ASSC) has estimated that 25% of applicants for jobs lie about their qualifications and experience or attempt to hide earlier misdemeanours. The worst examples of such behaviour include people claiming fictitious degrees and membership of professional bodies or failing to disclose convictions for serious crimes. Employees commit around 80% of frauds against employers and cost the UK’s businesses over £45 million a day. Nonetheless, the ASSC reckons about half of these crimes are never exposed because firms fear morale and the prices of shares will fall. Failure to expose deception can nullify insurance cover and lead to accusations of negligence.

Tony Blair describes his book, ‘A Journey’, as a letter of love to Britain. It has dashed off the shelves. Of course, he is probably disconnected from the reality of public opinion after three years in isolation from his former political base. Maybe Mr Blair is seeking to regain the adoration given to him in earlier years – from 1997 through three general elections? If so, he is on a loser. Candidates for Leader of The Labour Party keep away from him. At least one of them is terrified by possible endorsement of some kind. Yet, Mr Blair is the most successful of modern prime ministers. Journalists want an answer to a simple question: does he confess to being a charlatan? However, some of his analysis is sharp. He points to the Labour Party’s unwise reliance on state intervention and Keynesian-like injection of money to curb the financial crisis. Such insights are far more than interesting gossip. His description of Gordon Brown will enter lists of quotable statements: ‘Analytical intelligence? Absolutely. Emotional intelligence, zero’.

 

 
DUST THE THINKING CAPS PDF Print E-mail
Thursday, 02 September 2010 14:16

Measuring economic outlooks is a difficult trade. The Bank of England’s past predictions have not been good. It is spending lots of money on rebuilding the forecasting model. This act must be got together fast. Avoidance of panic in the world’s and domestic markets is an urgent priority. A feeling that no-one in Westminster and Whitehall knows what is going on will make dealers of all kinds twitchy.

The financial sequence has been easy for over thirty years. One got a reasonable feel for what was going on in the economy by looking at the monthly information on mortgage lending. If personal borrowing was upwards it was likely that the middle classes (or new entrants) would buy a new house. Then prices would rise. Then credit cards would be pushed to their limits for the purchase of furniture, carpets, kitchens and the like. Householders would see the higher value of their properties, book a winter holiday and buy some new clothes for the trip. Simple. Along with the rest of the developed world, the UK is at the end of that cul-de-sac. The days of easy money have gone. Credit has almost ceased. Whatever happens to our economy, there will not be another house-price, retail-spending-led boom for consumers. Britain has to create real wealth in the private sector.

A few reflections

  • If you can smile when things go wrong, you have thought of someone else to blame
  • If you can keep your head while all around are losing theirs, you probably do not realise how serious the situation is
  • If you can see a bandwagon, it’s too late
  • Indecision is the key to flexibility
  • There is a simple solution to every complicated problem, and it’s usually wrong.

For better judgement observe the sound habits. There are ten spokes to that wheel. Know what you want; obtain good information; separate facts from assumptions; accept uncertainty without anxiety; pursue outcomes, not personal preferences; try to keep an open mind; draw lessons from your errors; learn from others; stay on the same wavelength; and remember – you are in control.

We ought to inject risk into our activities – public, private and not-for-profit. It brings interesting relationships. If there is no risk there is no gain. Start small. 5% of traditional marketing budgets for the next two years or so is unlikely to make the difference between success and failure. However, an organisation will learn a lot and might find an answer that brings advantage. Do not throw the baby out with the bath water, but consider spending some money on figuring out whether there is a cleverer, better and quicker way of doing something. So much of marketing, promotion, advertising, presentations and so on has become institutionalised. This can be an obstacle to progress. Get the energetic person with prospects, creativity and judgement to lead the project.

 

 
MANAGERIAL DRIVE PDF Print E-mail
Monday, 23 August 2010 16:42

Can London compete as a financial centre?  Before the credit crunch we were accustomed to financial markets in which London, New York and Tokyo were the dominant forces.  Frankfurt, Geneva, Hong Kong and Singapore tucked in behind these large machines, but knew their place.  We all misbehaved economically over more than ten years.  The banks and mortgages assisted the orgy with enthusiasm.  Just before abolition, the Financial Services Authority (FSA) has announced plans to extend the coverage of its code for bonuses and pay.  This will include most hedge funds, investment banks and building societies.  Are these actions too late?  Centres such as Dubai, Mumbai, Seoul and Shenzhen have entered the fray.  This trend is not going to stop.  The City must broaden its vision and decide how to remain competitive over the next ten years.  Three ideas come to mind – concentrate on the natural habitat of northern Europe, stimulate more inward investment and simultaneously sell expertise and advice.  And manage operations better.

Unpick strategy, that over-worked word.  There are a few simple guidelines on planning for the longer-term and that is what it is about.  The starting point is:  Where am I now?  Where am I going?  How will I get there?  Easy to ask:  but difficult to answer.  The need for unrivalled persistence defeats most managers.  Don’t accept more of the same, a future dictated by others, feeling trapped, or a business without passion or inspiration.  Do plan for the results you want, increased financial independence, to be inspired again, to feel in control, and for measureable success.  These urgings resonate with soundly-based experience.

Muddled manager?  Of course not.  Well, just consider the new entrant to this managerial lark.  What is s/he to think – ‘Look before you leap’:  or ‘He who hesitates is lost’?  Will the future belong to the dynamic, young, forceful, aggressive manager:  or does it lie in co-operation and team spirit?  How does ‘Too old at 40’ this week square with pensions for patriarchs the next?  Why does one appraisal demand initiative:  the next a statesman-like restraint?  This company is focusing on fewer products:  how can that one see salvation in diversity?  Every proposition has another to deny it.  The problem is in absolutes.  We need learning managers not learned ones.  That is, those who can deal with specific problems/opportunities, and do not repeat a comforting blanket of adages.

New MPs in May will be watching and experiencing the informal rules of that exclusive club called the House of Commons.  The Parliamentary party is under the influence of a small number of hard-nosed, cynical and house-broken senior figures.  Each has a group of followers.  How many of them become ministers or enter the shadow cabinet – even if it is elected – depends on the success of their sage.  A few newcomers will have been categorised as high-flyers.  The whisperers will say they are ‘bright’ and/or ‘thoughtful’.  Being part of Her Majesty’s Opposition is an awful job.

 
THE DODGEMS PDF Print E-mail
Monday, 16 August 2010 15:16

Peter Mandelson’s new book, ‘The Third Man’ has caused a fuss.  But he says little that is new.  However, his style and priorities do emphasise that spin was a major problem for New Labour.  They made successful efforts to manipulate the media.  This war was lost because of the activities of Alastair Campbell, Peter Mandelson and others who pop-up on our TV screens in 2010 claiming fancy titles of advisers on this and that to the Blair/Brown administrations.  You find them in strange places.  This narrowly-based group persuaded an electorate that the country was governed by a Party obsessed with presentation and determined to avoid the truth.  More form than substance.  Maybe preening greed was the motivation for this tome?

Intangible assets such as innovation, organisational culture and strategic capabilities now account for as much as 85 per cent of market capitalisation for many firms.  This is the conclusion of Gary Hamel, the corporate strategist and author, who sprays important ideas all over the place.  The future is about differentiation:  size is no longer a defining issue.  ‘Capture new wealth by being novel and ask yourself if the voice of imagination is as loud as the noise of experience.’

Market share is dead, asserts Hamel.  If companies want to increase their proportion of wealth;  they will have to ‘reboot’ and rethink plans more quickly.  He suggests three types of capital – intellectual, structural and financial.  A lot of businesses are threatened by their traditional ways of doing things.

Smart managers are reconsidering value for customers in a post-digital economy. They are finding that is now less about the quality of a product or service – performance is taken for granted.  Increasingly, customers are favouring the suppliers who can best answer such questions as:

·         delivery:  are you reliable?

·         total cost of procurement and ownership:  how much will I pay – in time and aggravation – to do business with you?

·         information:  what can you tell me about my customers?

·         business-based expertise:  which of my internal processes can you make more effective?

·         brand:  what promise does your product or name imply?

Listen.  Listen.  Carefully.  Politicians in the western world are reviving the certainties that intervening in particular industries and companies can drive growth and create jobs.  This is happening despite the painful evidence of the 60s and 70s.  Several countries in the European Union are facing demands for a return of industrial policies.  Even France’s government has taken stakes in toy manufacturers, video-sharing websites and fallen champions.  Barack Obama’s administration in America is for all practical purposes the owner of General Motors and influential offices in Wall Street.  Japan’s new government is getting into the old habits of deepening all kinds of links between the state and business.  Bail-outs and billions of stimulus-type spending has captured the imaginations and meddling of politicians.  Is it possible they are in awe of what looks like the success of state capitalism in PR China?  If so, it is dangerous stuff.

 
A SIDEWAYS LOOK AT THE SCENE PDF Print E-mail
Monday, 02 August 2010 14:11

The economic crisis is not over.  Evidence grows that recessionary trends throughout the world have not gone away.  There is a dangerous change of mood by the UK’s influencers.  Credit for companies and households might tighten again soon.  This, despite the criticisms from the Rt Hon Vince Cable, secretary of state for Business, Innovation and Skills.  The recent Bank of England’s Credit Conditions Survey has found that a majority of banks said they expect to advance reduced funds in this quarter.  What’s the problem?  Partly, there are fears of the end to quantitative easing.  Then there are concerns in corporate minds about the euro and sovereign debts.  Such doubts encourage banks to retain cash and not lend to contemporaries.  Their own costs of borrowing emphasise misgivings.  So where is the destination of interest rates?  Economists offer a wide spread of predictions.  They always do.  The general agreement is that the emergency budget made rises less likely.  However, this does not affect the availability of credit.  As always, cash is king.

Big changes in major cities.  The proverbial smoke signals suggest that each of England’s twelve largest cities will elect both a directly-elected mayor and police commissioners on 3 May 2012.  There are technical difficulties in making sure each function covers the same territory.  For example, will the electors for mayor of Manchester be the same as those for Greater Manchester’s police force.  This would be a dramatic shake-up in the way cities are run.  The new-style mayor is likely to have substantial personal powers:  housing, planning, regeneration and transport.  S/he could remove the job of chief executive and take personal responsibility for hiring and dismissing staff, appointing a ‘cabinet’, deciding the structure for managing the council and directing expenditure.  We will get more information in a parliamentary bill on ‘localism’.  This process does not seem to include the earlier promise of a referendum to discover if voters wish to have an elected mayor.  The government fears a string of ‘no’ votes.  There are proposals for a confirmatory plebiscite a couple of years after installation.  These intentions might cause a huge row inside the Coalition.  The Liberal Democrats have big doubts about the ideas.  Indeed, there are sniffs of democratic deficit.  Nonetheless, the post of elected major in London is generally regarded as a success by both major political parties.

William Hague has become an elder statesman before his fiftieth birthday.  He was a minister (Wales and social security) in John Major’s government.  Insiders say he has awareness of passions and big pictures.  Maybe the political humiliation that ended his period as leader of the Conservative Party caused reassessments and brought some humility?  His subsequent biographies of Pitt the Younger and William Wilberforce are excellent pieces of work.  William Hague appears to have examined closely the task of Foreign Secretary.  The civil servants respect him.  He has posted competent civil servants to the European Union/Commission, created a National Security Council and told ambassadors to emphasise the UK’s economic interests in their activities.  The Conservatives’ grassroots regard him as a reliable custodian of their values in the Coalition.  All of these things, and his skills as a parliamentarian, have made William Hague one of our favourite politicians.  Moreover, since his marriage to Ffion Jenkins and discovery that he can be the House of Commons’ biggest earner from events and dinners, he looks more at home with himself.

AWOL.  I am going to the economic and social centre of the world from Thursday until Monday.  You know, Cleethorpes.  There will not be another blog until 16 August.

 
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